2018 Midterm Election Analysis: What Blue Wave?
It’s hard to believe, but the midterms are finally over. Because of my work in Congress, I often view everything from a federal lens. While I don’t believe that federal level policies impact the daily life of Americans nearly as much as local political offices, it’s easier for me to look at things nationally and then distill them down to the community level.
On November 6th, we learned a lot about the state of politics in our nation. Here are my top takeaways from the 2018 midterm elections:
The Blue Wave
It is historically accurate that most midterm elections are a referendum on the sitting president's party and policies, which typically results in a dramatic shift in power in the House of Representatives and Senate. The most recent and powerful example was the 2010 midterm election. From a November 3, 2010 Guardian article:
“Barack Obama was today facing a harsh new US political reality in the wake of one of the worst Democratic defeats for 70 years. In midterm election races across America, Republicans pummeled their opponents, capturing the House of Representatives and a fistful of Senate seats.”
In 2018, we’ve seen similar enthusiasm from the sitting president’s opposite party, but the outcome wasn't nearly as dramatic. This left many wondering whether the House overturn could truly be called a “blue wave” when Republicans remained in control of the senate, as well as control of Governor’s mansions in critical states like Ohio and Florida. It’s looking like there was more of a “blue breeze” (yes, I coined that term) than a blue wave, but only time will tell as elections get certified across the country.
Americans are divided, but that’s nothing new
It’s often difficult for me to hear people talk about the political landscape with the outrage and frustration we’ve experienced since the 2016 General Election. Our country once had a massive civil war, remember? Our president was killed by a man in the 1960s, and that wasn’t the first time in our history our president was assassinated. And that same president almost wasn’t elected because he was (gasp!) a Catholic.
Because I eat, sleep, and breathe political work, I constantly remind those around me that this is truly what makes America great. We all have the same opportunities to channel our outrage into activism, social media outreach, voting, or simply living our life and not ever getting involved. We also have the opportunity to channel our outrage into hate, rioting, bigotry, and anger. The choice is ours.
I loved seeing an SNL cast member apologize to Congressman-Elect Dan Crenshaw about his offensive joke a few days before the election. This is what makes me proud to be an American. We have so much more in common as Americans than we give ourselves credit for. 2018 wasn’t any different; elections focus on the few differences and we each get to vote for who we believe will represent us best.
With races getting tighter and tighter, our votes matter more now than ever
Typically, there are 2-3 races that get national attention for being within the margin of error, or close to a recount. But, this cycle had several in Georgia, Utah, and Florida. This indicates that turnout was much higher, but also that races were generally more competitive. This means the system is working. We should have tough choices to make at the voting booth. This indicates that voting is critical, when many races were decided on less than 1,000 votes.
One thing is for certain— no two elections are the same.